Coronavirus

[prairie hunter]

Ontario resorts will be hit exceptionally hard.

Many resorts in MN (Leech - Winnie) area already hit with the bad ice situation that hit the area just after Christmas.

Small town northern MN is full of retired and aging population. They don't want visitors.

The younger set that still works for a living needs these people. There are plenty of small and mid size general contractors and carpenters that make a living on the second home / lake home crowd.

State Parks, public hunting land and boat launches should remain open. Just have common sense and practice social distancing.

[prairie hunter]

I keep seeing all that stuff on China. Fake news ??

China hiding total infected and total dead ... no doubt the did and continue to do so.

21 million dead ... doubt it.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... irus-bites

[Drunk_Dynasty]

[quote="prairie hunter"]Maybe guided hunts will be shutdown next fall I think Canada is shutdown (to Americans) for snows this spring.

It's shut down for everything tourist related.
I weaseled my way into a Canada fishing trip over Memorial Day Weekend with a buddy.
He's got a cabin on an island of the Canadian side of a border lake that's boat in only and it's a no-go.....no border crossing of any kind.....unless something drastic changes which if anything it will change for the worse by the end of May.

We have 95 days before the models have MN hitting peak curve where the infection rate soars. Originally it was nine weeks at doing nothing. With the measures we've already taken it reduced the transmission rate by 50%, so bought us another half of the nine weeks so four and a half more.

What we're doing currently is only meant to buy us another month of time in order to beef up healthcare to handle the influx of patients once we hit the point where the curve shoots straight up.

A virus is a living organism. Like all living organisms.....once they are introduced to a hospitable environment conducive for them to rapidly expand in numbers, that's exactly what they'll do. This virus is no different than AIS in many ways.....

Take zebra mussels being discovered in Mille Lacs in 2006 for example. For five years the DNR conducted a zebra mussel population assessment by having divers swim up a rope on the lake bottom and count zebes by hand. They had different survey routes at various parts of the lake to do the counts in order to monitor the growing population of zebes. The numbers they'd tally were along the lines of 25 the first year, then 57 the second, the 158, the 489, then 1421.......for five friggin' years they were able to count all the zebes they located going along a 100' 100yd or 100 meter length of rope, I forget which one it was, and count them by hand...BY HAND...just a dude in scuba gear slowly swimming and pulling himself along a length of rope on the bottom counting zebra mussels......

.....then in 2011 they couldn't do that anymore.

Zebes exploded and covered 35% of the lake bottom in densities of 7,000 to 8,000 per square foot. Over a 1,000 per square foot for the whole lake on average, with 65% of the lakes bottom not having them present. In 2012 there was an estimated 2 Billion pounds of zebes in Mille Lacs.....a Million Tons.


This virus is no different and what people need to realize is this:

Where we're at is where zebes were at in Mille Lacs circa 2006.

We've got 95 days until we reach the point with this virus that will be comparable to the point zebes took off in Mille Lacs in 2011.


There are 5,700,000 people living in our state and 80% of them will get infected by the Chinese Wuhan Virus.

Of the 4,560,000 Minnesotans who get infected 15% will require hospitalization.

That's 684,000 people that will need hospital treatment. A third of those will require significant time in the ICU on a ventilator.

That's 228,000 people.

My brother's hospital has one....ONE. The entire TC-metro has less than 450.

The models are by no means exact. Everywhere is different and this thing is new so there's very little established data for it, and zero data that reflects what it does and the time it takes to go from initial finding of outbreak until peak rate of infection in the state of MN. With that being said, they're the best we got and we need to have some sort of timeline to to be able to plan for this....in order to get our healthcare system as best prepared as possible for when this shit spikes up and takes off like a rocket.

As of now the model has that at 95 days. What we're doing right now is [hopefully] buying us the extra month needed to push out the deadline for getting healthcare beefed up to a timeline that's an obtainable goal that can be met, and now coincide with when this shit goes 2011 zebra mussels on Mille Lacs.

If they're off by 15 days on the backend? Great! Another two weeks to become even better prepared.

If they're off by 15 days on the front end this shit goes zebes in ML 2011 early on us?

A whole heckuva a lot of people are going to die and there's going to be nothing anyone can do to stop that from happening.

If you're the praying type---pray for the 95 day projection to be accurate and have this shit explode in our populus at a mark of a full 95 days or later..........[/quote]I was an intern for the DNR in 2014, I was counting the zebras mussels the divers sent up by hand, one by one. Thousands at every transect. I would close my eyes at night and see zebes. Just zebes.

Invasion ecology is a good analogy tho. Once its here in even the lowest noticeable numbers it's too late.

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[maplelakeduckslayer]

Hmm...today's presser is not good news. Sounds like they are putting pretty heavy faith in 100k-200k deaths and are praising that as a victory vs 2.2 mil deaths if nothing had been done. Peak in 2 weeks is what they are looking at. Dang. End of April for restrictions

[Fish Felon]

Hmm...today's presser is not good news. Sounds like they are putting pretty heavy faith in 100k-200k deaths and are praising that as a victory vs 2.2 mil deaths if nothing had been done. Peak in 2 weeks is what they are looking at. Dang. End of April for restrictions

You're right, that isn't good news.....

........that's GREAT NEWS!


Honest to God, if this thing peaks in two weeks and we're riding the steep downhill side of the infection curve towards being back to normal in a month, and get out of this thing with only 200K deaths?

That'd be a fukcing miracle!


One thing that I haven't seen mentioned in a long time, and only saw it mentioned once or twice at the earliest onset of this, is......


.....the possibility that COVID-19 is flu-like in that it's seasonal.

That's a distinct possibility.

That means transmission rates could be dropping due to timing and have little to do with social distancing.

I drive to my office, lock the door, and come in contact with one person, my boss, because everyone else is working remotely. So I come in contact with one person......

.....until I go to Kwik Trip every day to get lunch. God Damn are their chicken tenders good....they're the fukcing best!

Anyways, my daily lunch stop...or people going grocery shopping, or getting gas...

...all enough to get all of us sick.

I think if we see the rate of transmission drop we need to factor in that just like the flu, COVID-19 season might just be ending on it's own. Hypothetically, if this thing hit two months earlier we very well might have been really ****, social distancing doing little to nothing to slow it down.


Recent chart for MN flu hospitalizations....shit is fukcing done man...

[maplelakeduckslayer]

Short everything

[Hansen]

The sky is falling the sky is falling.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/an-update- ... lsRhj1GYUp

[Hansen]

More good news for those who choose to see it.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/breaking ... benshapiro

[h2ofwlr]

I keep seeing all that stuff on China. Fake news ??

China hiding total infected and total dead ... no doubt the did and continue to do so.

21 million dead ... doubt it.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... irus-bites

Well what if 25% of that total is because they died, that's still 5M

[Hansen]

I keep seeing all that stuff on China. Fake news ??

China hiding total infected and total dead ... no doubt the did and continue to do so.

21 million dead ... doubt it.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... irus-bites

Well what if 25% of that total is because they died, that's still 5M

I just can't think of a scenario where 5 million Americans die from Covid 19 given our current death rate per million, treatment advancements, summer around the corner, social distances and generally awareness.