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Hansen
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Re: Stay Safe

Tue May 19, 2020 2:10 pm

Walz's models went from 75k dead to 55K dead to 22K dead . . . . now a range between 1,600 and 44K based on the most recent models. The models are horribly wrong with major assumption issues. I work with data models every day, if I were that wrong I would be working on burger king. We have not hit 1K yet. Of that 1K almost all would have died from something else in a short amount of time.

HnkrCrash
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Re: Stay Safe

Tue May 19, 2020 5:21 pm

Nearly 100K dead in 3 months is nothing to scoff at and this is far from over. I’m sure the families of those who died in isolation are happy to know people think those deaths are humorous because they were lower than original projections. The specific demographic of fatalities in Minnesota related to long term care facilities is over-represented compared to the nation as a whole and it is simply false to state that the vast majority of all COVID-19 fatalities would have died in a short time anyways.

As for mask wearing, kudos to your brother-in-law for working as a surgeon at Mayo. Legit, that’s a hell of an accomplishment. A surgeon is not an epidemiologist nor a microbiologist though. Different disciplines completely and his employer appears to have a different opinion on their efficacy:

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-con ... t-20485449

Regardless of personal opinions, the data is glaringly obvious that countries that have embraced widespread mask wearing have a drastically lower rate of infection. Is it 100%, definitely not, but again research and anecdotal evidence indicates that mask use does in fact reduce transmission rate.
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Nershi
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Re: Stay Safe

Tue May 19, 2020 6:49 pm

It would be nice to know how many people actually died from covid. 100k is a lot of people but anyone with some sense can see it is clearly inflated. The number of reported dead from this include people who died who had covid but didn’t necessarily die because of it. If someone has serious health issues and happens to get the flu or a cold when they are on their way out they aren’t reported as a flu or cold death. It also includes people who never actually got tested but showed symptoms similar to covid and were suspected to have it. If you look at the symptoms of covid I’d wager a guess that most people who die show some symptoms that also occur from covid. Lots of doctors have posted videos saying they are being told to report covid deaths even if they aren’t sure covid lead to the death. Giving financial incentives to hospitals for covid deaths and patients was not a good idea.

Similarly giving the $600 per week unemployment bonus, while with good intentions, was not a good idea. Employers are struggling to get people to come back to work because they are making more on unemployment. All they need to say is they are concerned of getting covid and they can continue to stay at home and collect the government money. If they were getting normal unemployment benefits those people would be eager to get back to work. They aren’t scared to go to the grocery store or other public places yet they claim they are scared to go to work.

I get concerned that Walz is going to always recommend or order people work from home if they are able to. Lots of businesses that have people working from home are not able to operate at full capacity because of all the issues with working remotely. We accommodated working from home but I cannot wait until we have all the staff back. At a certain point I’m gonna tell everyone they need to come back in regardless of what the governor says. Sounds simple to politicians to just tell everyone to keep working from home because they don’t actually know the first thing about the struggles running a business.

As for masks I don’t think it will stop the inevitable which is that people are going to get the virus sooner or later no matter what we do. That’s become pretty obvious from all the senior homes with strict rules that are still getting infected. We have reached the original goal of slowing the spread for hospitals. Time to get back to normal. If you don’t feel safe or have concerns about Infecting a loved one then stay at home. That’s your freedom to chose. Just like it should be businesses freedom to open if they like, require masks, implement additional distance measures, etc.

HnkrCrash
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Re: Stay Safe

Tue May 19, 2020 10:23 pm

Why do the people who are predicting (and way over estimating deaths, which of course is completely explainable) are always the ones with all the friends that are deathly ill with 'rona?


Makes it really hard to stick your head in the sand and pretend it could never happen to you or your immediate family when people you know and see/talk to almost daily get infected or are working with patients who are infected.

One of my best friend’s wives is a nurse working the front line in the St. Cloud hospital respiratory unit. She deals with COVID-19 every day she’s there. One of my brothers friend’s wives is in a similar role at Bethesda in St. Paul. She gets the joy of literally spending her day at patients’ bedsides watching them die essentially alone with strangers. Fun stuff for both of them; neither F’s around or downplays how serious this virus is.

It’s kinda like when I was younger and 4 of my buddies got random bar hookups knocked-up within about a 1 year span. It was all just fun and games and slingin’ dick before that, but after awhile the rest of us all realized that pretending that being tied to some crazy chick for the next 18 years could never happen to us was just stupid and “chest or back” probably wasn’t the best strategy.
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Fish Felon
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Re: Stay Safe

Wed May 20, 2020 2:41 am

HnkrCrash wrote:As for mask wearing, kudos to your brother-in-law for working as a surgeon at Mayo. Legit, that’s a hell of an accomplishment. A surgeon is not an epidemiologist nor a microbiologist though.

Michael Osterholm is a pretty well-respected epidemiologist, right? Few if any are as highly regarded as him.....

.....and he and his family won't wear cloth masks since according to him....they're pointless...

"Cloth masks, I think are at the very bottom of the list. They have little impact if any. But they've become basically something that people feel like they have to do or want to do it. If they want to do it, go ahead."

Dr. Osterholm ended his discussion about masks on The Morning News with Dave Lee by saying they just aren't that helpful in normal public places.

"I can tell you right now I don't believe that they play any major role in either preventing me from getting infected if I use it or if I am infected and don't know it. I don't have any symptoms. They don't protect those around me from using it."



https://wccoradio.radio.com/articles/ap ... from-virus

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspec ... xperts-say



It's even in the warning label on manufactured cloth masks that they don't prevent the spread of the virus....

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Re: Stay Safe

Wed May 20, 2020 3:31 am

My brother is a RN at a hospital within an hour drive from downtown Minneapolis.

Here's what you're not being told about everyone who is dying....and it's not due to any media bias or fake news or deliberately trying to mislead the public or anything like that.....

You're not hearing about it for one simple reason:

Out of respect for the dead.

It looks extremely insensitive and disrespectful to report that the people dying are morbidly obese. They're generally extremely old, and extremely overweight. You can pretty much assume that the younger they are.....the fatter they are and/or the more severe their other underlying health issues are.

Ever notice how virtually everyone you've ever met who has sleep apnea is fat? Of the dozen or so people I've met and/or know personally who need to sleep with a CPAP, only one wasn't morbidly obese per their BMI.

A CPAP isn't that different than a ventilator besides one covers your mouth externally and the other requires a tube to go down your throat internally.

Now I realize that they've backed off quite a bit on the use of ventilators but that doesn't negate my point.

Being obese effects everything. It puts pressure on your other organs. It limits you from moving. It stops your lungs from being able to properly expand.

The people who die from covid.....are extremely unhealthy people. I'm not talking middle aged with a spare tire....

....I'm talking old as dirt and/or orca fat and/or on chemo, or something to that effect....and/or all of the above.

As I've stated all along---if you are healthy enough to go duck hunting, you will not die from covid when you get infected, if you already haven't been. We're all being exposed to it. Every time you go to Walmart or run into Kwik Trip to get something to eat and drink.....you're most likely being exposed to it....probably each and every time.

There was a 44yo guy that died from covid and was like 81% of those that have died in our state in that he was a resident of a nursing home.

There are two things that cause a man to be living out the rest of his days in a nursing home when he's only 44yo.

1) quadriplegic or paraplegic....the latter being a temporary stay right after the accident....in 99% of cases the injury was suffered in a car accident.

2) morbidly obese....as in morbidly, morbidly....morbidly.....obese. So fat they're unable to get out of bed or move. As fat as Gilbert Grape's mom was.

Guess which one of the two was the 44yo who was at the time....the youngest to die in MN?


If you're able to put on a pair of waders, hop out of a boat, and wade through shallow water with a mucky bottom and set out duck decoys.....

.....you are too healthy to die from covid.


Tom Hauser the chief political reporter from KTSP5 reviewed all the deaths that weren't in a nursing home in MN last Thursday. As of me writing this there are only 140 deaths in the state that didn't occur in a LTC facility. Last Thursday I believe that number was 126. I remember because I had been watching it waiting for it to break 125.5.....

....the number of Minnesotans that died every day on average during 2019. After months of this "pandemic" it finally put up a cumulative total of deaths for people who weren't living in a facility they were sent to die at.....that was more than how many died each and every day averaged across the entire year in 2019....before we ever heard of this virus.

Of those 126 deaths outside LTC facilities....Tom Hauser reviewed the records and his investigation concluded that of those 126......

.....only 6 weren't extremely old and with underlying health issues so severe that it was reasonable to expect them to live longer than a year had they not died of covid. Only a half a dozen people died that unfortunately lost out on a significant (several years or more) of life they would have otherwise had left.

Other than those half a dozen people....an amount of people that can fit in a single sedan if you make someone sit bitch or more likely cram four in the backseat.....

....other than them, everyone else was in the process of dying and it was likely they'd die within the calendar year. Now obviously not all would have....some would surprise people. You know....those uncommon but not super uncommon cases where a doctor gives them six months to live and they don't die until 18 months later.

That can and does happen....but it doesn't change the fact that they were told they'd be dying soon and they did indeed die soon. An extra year defying the odds, sure it happens....oh boy, a whole 'nother year.....stuck in a bed, on some various type of machine most likely, being spoon fed baby food and having them change their diapers and wiping off their shit that was smeared across their ass.

The people that are dying outside of nursing homes?

They're pretty much exactly like the people who are dying inside them. They're old, morbidly obese, taking a shitload of pills, have all sorts of underlying health issues, but they can't afford to be put in a home so a family member takes care of them....or possibly a family member wants to take care of them because they care about them and don't want them going dark with dementia/Alzheimers in a disgusting nursing home where no one gives a shit about them more than as a task they need to check off their list while at work.
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Re: Stay Safe

Wed May 20, 2020 3:50 am

Of the handful of...the six....that had more time to live.....

.....I suspect they were opiate users/addicts.

When someone takes too much Heroin/Opiates for their body to handle....how do they die?

The part of the brain that controls your muscle movements that you don't have to think about, called the medulla, shuts off....and once it is so **** up from injesting too much heroin/opiates....it stops sending the neurotransmitted signals that regulate your heart beat and tell your lungs to keep breathing and taking in air.....and you die.

I suspect that there's a decent chance that most if not all of the six who had significant time left were heroin/opiate users. Some of them might have just legitimately OD'ed and then tested positive for covid because guess what?

A dead body that died because the lungs stopped breathing from a drug overdose isn't all that different than a dead body that died from the effects of covid......both are going to be blue without enough oxygen in their blood to survive, and look like they suffocated......

....because they did.


No one healthy is dying from covid.


Unless you're old as dirt, in a home, orca fat, or have some severe underlying health issues for your age group....like being on chemo after a cancer diagnosis and surgery......


No one healthy enough to go duck hunting dies from covid
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Re: Stay Safe

Wed May 20, 2020 7:19 am

maplelakeduckslayer wrote:Can't believe that Menards is mandatory face masks...either bring one or buy one at desk for $1. Just stopped in this weekend I probably would have walked right in if gf didn't point out the sign

I've always been a Menards kind of guy but I definitely am a little disappointed in them regarding this

It was all because of MI Gov ordered it there for any store to be open, so Menards made is a company wide policy. :?


emptymag wrote:First they came for my neighbor. I said nothing. Then they came for my friends. I said nothing. Then they came for me and there was no one to help.

Spot on!


Hansen wrote:My brother in law is a surgeon at Mayo. I was over at his place last weekend. We fish and hunt together all the time. He went on a 15 minute rant about these idiots wearing masks and especially gloves. But what does he know.

Possibly this (and if worn properly and no gaps between skins and mask):
Attachments
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Re: Stay Safe

Wed May 20, 2020 7:41 am

HnkrCrash wrote:Regardless of personal opinions, the data is glaringly obvious that countries that have embraced widespread mask wearing have a drastically lower rate of infection. Is it 100%, definitely not, but again research and anecdotal evidence indicates that mask use does in fact reduce transmission rate.

I have to agree. For example Czechoslovakia made it mandatory 2 months ago and their rate of transmission and then resulting death toll was well below of what Italy's was. It defies logic, but the transmissions rate is lower if the vast majority are wearing even cloth masks.



Stute Slap wrote:Weren't we all supposed to be dead already, like a month ago??? Or is it still just around the corner?
Is anyone wondering what happened to 74,000 dead in MN alone prediction? Anyone?

A vaccine is out at least a yr based on past experiences of vaccines.

Just do the math.

5.5M people in MN x .652% (current death rate) = 35,860 by this time NEXT year.

US population of 330M x .652% = 2.151M dead this time next year.

Currently it's far less lethal that the Spanish Flu was which had a 3% death rate 102 yrs ago.


In MN the number of people getting will increase in June and July then start tapering off.
https://covidactnow.org/state/MN

But what will happen this winter during the "traditional" flu season? Remember this is indeed a type of flu, and cold and less sunlight make it more viral.

Hmmm....
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HnkrCrash
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Re: Stay Safe

Wed May 20, 2020 8:06 am

Just as many opinions from experts as anyone else regarding effectiveness of masks:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.tampab ... utType=amp

Regardless of what people think, the actual data is clear. Countries that have embraced widespread mask wearing have lower rates of COVID-19 infection than those who do not.

No doubt most people who die are not in the best condition, but again the numbers in Minnesota are very skewed and not representative of the nation and virus as a whole. Thousands of previously healthy people have died from COVID-19 around the world since this kicked off.

Agree completely that obesity is a huge factor in those who are dying. I think I read at one point it was a comorbidity in like 65+% of COVID-19 related deaths. Just like the sleep apnea example though, it’s not necessarily a broad brush. I have CPAP sitting on my nightstand as I type this and I am far from obese.
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