Maplelakeduckslayer's Woodie Camp for Daytraders

[Nershi]

If the dollar tanks gold increases in value. That doesn’t mean people will be trying to buy stuff with gold. They’ll just get a lot more value in dollars out of gold vs dollars in the bank or in the stock market that crashes.

My uncle buys a lot of gold because he is paranoid. When the stock market is booming he looks pretty foolish with his gold investment. When it is crashing he looks pretty smart.

Sure feels like there is a bubble getting ready to burst but I could be totally wrong. I don’t have the interest or time to follow the investment markets. I just keep shoving money aggressively in my 401k and hope for the best.

[maplelakeduckslayer]

My gut tells me that they are driving fear of a crash to create buying opportunities for themselves. When you see all these big wigs like Jamie Dimon and others saying crash...it's awfully suspect. It's all a game for them to drive liquidity one way or another. These guys aren't on our side so why would they tell us a crash is coming is the way I look at it. The whole market its just a liquidity game. If they need liquidity to buy they'll do everything they can to try and get people to sell. When prices are going up and people are all excited and bullish that's the liquidity they sell into.

I do think it's possible to crash as well the underlying economics of it all are so f'd right now.

But imo this whole thing is orchestrated and with them saying crash coming....that tells me they aren't going to cause a crash and are positioning themselves for the next bull cycle and are buying up stock while telling people to sell.

I hope I'm wrong though and we do get a sizable market selloff yet because I'm in a nice position to take advantage of it.

It's just kinda funny though like the 2008 mess...markets started falling in 2007 and started going up in 2009 it was like a 2 year bear market during one of the worst economic crisis ever...markets only fell two years

The s and p 500 has been falling 15 months already on just "fear" of a recession.

I read/watch like the charts of stocks/s and p 500 and the pattern the s and p is in right now is either accumulation (where they are buying up positions before they start pushing it higher) or distribution where they are selling before the ultimate drop. Both patterns will look exactly the same but it's factoring in the other relative information to determine if it's the accumulation or distribution phase.

With them all claiming crash like I said I believe it's in accumulation phase.

But we'll see what happens I love and live for this stuff. I don't try to really time the overall indices too much and actively trade them I just want to keep throwing money into an index fund on the downswings.

I much prefer actively trading the small cap world. The manipulation and orchestration on small caps is much easier to identify because you'll typically have a couple parties involved moving the price.

[maplelakeduckslayer]

Silicon Valley Bank boarded up and taken over by FDIC today... incredible story. 18th largest bank in the US. 2nd largest ever bank failure.

Let's see where this heads...one large bank isn't good at all...but should be navigable

If this creates any sort of large scale panic...things could get crazy. Let's hope that don't happen.

ROKU had like 26% of their cash at SVB and 426 mil was uninsured.

It's pretty crazy

[Fish Felon]

We're fukced and headed towards meltdown. It's inevitable. The only way the fed knows how to fight off inflation is by raising rates, and by raising rates they're going to put more banks under who have invested in ultra low yield bonds forever due to previous to a year ago historically longterm low interest rates......so they're stuck between a rock and a hard place.....A) inflation that bankrupts the country B) crushing banks by reducing their bond portfolio to being less than worthless C) continuing to print money to bail us out and reducing the dollar to nothing = We Are Fukced

[Fish Felon]

CDO/CLO's = are five year investment tools that are built largely off bonds. CDO's are what crashed everything in 2007-08 and it will be CLO's this time.....by raising rates and reducing the bonds wrapped up in all the current CLO's to garbage.....the tranches will start failing and the waterfall will be tranche failing to the next = total financial meltdown.

Last time it was AIG who had their CDO's fail due to subprime mortgage backed securities but it'll be worse this time because most if not all the tranches in the CLO's are comprised of unsecured company bonds....nothing of value backing them. CLO's are used by virtually every insurance company (same thing as "big banks") to fund their reinsurance contracts. Once they can't fund their realized losses.....the dominoes will start falling.....

[maplelakeduckslayer]

So far the accumulation phase I preached while telling us the markets are imploding has played out... markets flying

Well see if it sustains

Predictions are two more 25 bps hikes by the fed followed by 100 bps cuts in 2024...to me that's retarded

I'm curious if they halt hikes rest of year which is incredibly bullish.

They never tell us the truth you have to read between the lines

There was never any high volume offloading while they told us markets were going to tank was a huge red flag. In 2007 volume was off the charts while they were telling us everything was a ok. Now they telling us things are going to implode...if they legitimately felt that way they would have offloaded securities to any willing buyers...however there was zero volume on this market pullback

We'll see

[lanyard]

I've been running a stock investment simulator for ~6 months. I'm sitting at an annualized return of +39% and only swapped one retail stock for banking when sympathy sell offs happened after SVB. My biggest winners are auto and oil.

Investment dollars tend to run to safety/profit when things get upside down. Well established, well run, history of tried-and-true: these are not the "dream" stocks and all were fantasy purchased with per share <$150, most < $100. Ford, Shell, BP, IBM, Winnebago, etc.

So why a simulator vs putting up the $: I'm a Woody. Good place to test strategy and my it is ground work for my kids to be active investors. I spend more time concerned with the price of shotgun shells than I do stock... hoping to give them a different perspective than I grew up with which was basically "rich people own stock, we go to work".

[maplelakeduckslayer]

Nice! It's fun to have involvement in it and it's very powerful stuff for people at a younger age compounding is an incredible thing. People just don't do the math.

Like gfs brother was asking me about a month ago about my high yield savings said ya it pays 4% it's great

Asked him yesterday if he had set it up he said no he was thinking of paying off his car loan instead

Well...you do the actual math and obviously there's variables but at current savings rates you are better off continuing to pay the auto payments and keeping the cash in a high yield savings...you be money ahead paying the interest on auto loan when factoring in compound gains.

Now these savings rates won't stay up here forever it's temporary but...there's just no teaching of this sort of stuff to young people

Really it's by design honestly to keep them slaves to the system

But that's great you at least giving them an introduction. I never really got any I remember dad talking about getting calls from brokers in NY getting him in stocks and typically losing lol...cause they are basically paid promoters pushing liquidity for those stocks for others to get out. But I pretty much had to figure everything out on my own starting in late 2016

Which was kinda a major turn because in my 20's I viewed the markets and too risky and I'd never put money into