Some here and on another site said--so what abouit more current data than from 50 years ago.
Well today I was sent some reports on the NE and ATL Fyway experimental seasons.
Some recent data from Nebraska 2000-2002
As one would expect, incorrect ID rates before sunrise was higher but the average was still below the 25% threshold. The key for the attempt rate are the 2 sets of #s on the far right. Last is high and 2nd to last on the right is low end of % with a 90% confidence rate. So the 1st line is 13% as low and 22% as high end. So the average is about an 18% attempt rate at non legal ducks
But remember NE is NOT a production state, thus likely there were lower #s of non legal ducks compared to production states.
The data is from the "Final Report on the Experimental September Teal Season"
Table 6. Results of Nebraska spy blind study, pooled across years (2000-2002).
Attempt Rate Estimated Time Period n Mean SE 90% Confidence Limits Lower Upper
Non-target All 146 0.179 0.028 0.133 0.224
Non-target Pre-sunrise 76 0.143 0.038 0.081 0.206
Non-target Post-sunrise 114 0.211 0.036 0.152 0.270
Target All 199 0.809 0.019 0.778 0.840
Target Pre-sunrise 150 0.801 0.024 0.762 0.840
Target Post-sunrise 170 0.827 0.022 0.791 0.863
I'll go through the Atl doc later as it is a very long read and determine what highlights are in it worth sharing.
Now if a person had the NE data from 1965-67 and compared it to the 2000-02 data, they could determine if hunters ability to ID went up or if it remained the same. Based on that, one could draw a reasonable conclusion of what MN hunters would do based upon the 1965 data that he has.
So I wonder if that is what Steve Cordts did to come up with his basis of not supporting a MN early teal season. Mind you it is pure speculation on my part, but it'd be a good basis for his reasoning.