h2ofwlr wrote:I happened to see a headline from Fox news that said Hillary gained 4% and Donald lost 2% after the debate based ona 2 way race. (Now 49% to 44%). So what are the REAL polls, meaning the 4 way race?
It's not a popular vote to win so there isn't a whole lot of relevance in a poll designed to determine what the results would be if that were the case. It's possibly an indicator of who fared better in the debate, that's about it. With the media being extremely biased the way of Clinton it makes a guy wonder if the change isn't the tail wagging the dog. Had the general consensus by all the pundits been that Trump had won, would he have gotten the same [supposed] spike instead? Is the voting public that much like sheep?
It's all about what they're polling in the states that are toss-ups and getting to 270 electoral votes, if I remember right.
The internet has become extremely un-useful for a lot of information. Type in 'presidential polls' and see what comes up....pure dogshit, and a lot of it. It takes a significant amount more time that'd it used to in order to scroll through and decipher what poll has merit.
I'm sure one could just go to Gallup or a news source they trust but those were typically what came right up not all that long ago.
Maybe my computer sucks or I just feel like bitching this morning...
....anyways, if Trump wins he will not win the popular vote. Hillary is going to trounce him in CA, NY, etc., and pick up a sizeable amount of popular votes that he won't surpass because I'm thinking the states he wins will be much closer. The only large population state he might be able to trounce her in is TX, that's it. I'd bet she'll take CA by a much wider margin than he takes TX. The rest of the hard-red states don't have the population and again, even if they did I don't think the margins will be wide enough.
For Trump to win the electoral map is going to need to be near identical to 2004 Bush over Kerry. I legitimately think he's got more than a decent shot. It wouldn't be that far fetched for him to become president with the popular vote swinging like what you shared.
If that happens it'll probably be the end of the electoral college---which would be terrible. I love it and think it's an awesome way to do it....great, great balance it brings.
In the end I really don't care that much. The world will keep turning. Obama was going to take all our guns too. Things change very slowly unless they're reactionary. If that's what the founding fathers wanted they truly were brilliant.
Guns is the most untouchable issue that exists. More untouchable than abortion. By no means do I want Clinton, but I'm not going to lose any sleep over it.
Always fun to speculate and try to sound smart on the 'ol interwebs.