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lanyard
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Re: Economy going forward?

Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:14 am

Finally some actual math gong into the "lives vs economy" debate. The math if flawed a bit (discussed in article) because every life is valued the same.....

Still need an analysis regarding how many of the projected 1.7 million would die anyway.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/business/economy/coronavirus-economy.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_NN_p_20200325&instance_id=17048&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=116163707&section=topNews&segment_id=22795&te=1&user_id=fb27c62a1bcdfd771b4fec614275a31c

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h2ofwlr
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Re: Economy going forward?

Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:05 am

^^^ Can't read as I'd have to pay to read it. :/


emptymag wrote:Work issued face masks today. We’re classified as an essential business I guess and now have essentially unlimited overtime. Short on staff so I get to work 12hr+ shifts week days and fill in on night shift on the weekends.

highly skilled trade? Because if not, with so many getting laid I'd think they could find workers now.




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recker7676
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Re: RE: Re: Economy going forward?

Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:02 pm

Fish Felon wrote:Bullard is saying 2Q jobless rate could rise to 30%....also says GDP looking to drop 50% in 2Q, the largest in history, by far.....

We're fukced. We're just so fukcing fukced! Fukc!!!

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lanyard
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Re: Economy going forward?

Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:37 pm

He's panicking.

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no! it ain't over unless we say it is! When the going gets tough, the tough get going! Let's GO!!!!

maplelakeduckslayer
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Re: Economy going forward?

Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:09 pm

3 mil unemployed

More states going into "full" shutdown...my dad may lay everyone off at his construction company no one will even let them in to work no one wants people in their house right now.even though they are essential. Feel bad for him hes 61 I know he was eyeing selling his company soon, then this fall his long term project manager left setting him back now this.

I'm staying open it's just myself and my office assistant right now so I'm pretty lean.

Markets are a friggen ATM right now play that volatility. But this will have long lasting effects q1 earnings will be in like may...q2 in Aug. Gonna be some bumps and bruises along the way

recker7676
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Re: RE: Re: Economy going forward?

Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:38 pm

maplelakeduckslayer wrote:3 mil unemployed

More states going into "full" shutdown...my dad may lay everyone off at his construction company no one will even let them in to work no one wants people in their house right now.even though they are essential. Feel bad for him hes 61 I know he was eyeing selling his company soon, then this fall his long term project manager left setting him back now this.

I'm staying open it's just myself and my office assistant right now so I'm pretty lean.

Markets are a friggen ATM right now play that volatility. But this will have long lasting effects q1 earnings will be in like may...q2 in Aug. Gonna be some bumps and bruises along the way
Ill be honest im glad i sold my rental townhome last year. Selling right now could be tough but our bank is still kicking out refinances pretty good. Super busy at the moment but we will see. Service industry has been crushed no question but it will reopen at some point. Sadly some small boys will likely not make it.

The market is what it is and usually forward looking. It will bounce around awhile but i dont think we are hitting 10k like fowler said or even 15k. Just cant freakout. Just remember the big boys are looking to make a killing on shorting the market and get you to panic and help them. Bill akman did it last week and he is a billionaire who shorts and was on tv spouting complete panic to get people to sell He was on tv again today saying shut the economy for a month.
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman turned $27 million into $2.6 billion by betting that the coronavirus would tank the market




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recker7676
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Re: Economy going forward?

Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:41 pm

Hell is coming,” Ackman said on CNBC in a clip played by Fox News host Tucker Carlson. “This was a feeling like I’ve never had, like there’s a tsunami coming. A tsunami coming and you feel it in the air, the tide starts to roll out and on the beach, people are playing and having fun like there’s nothing going on and that is a feeling I’ve had for the last two months. And my colleagues at work thought I was a lunatic. We need to shut it down now. America will end as we know it, I’m sorry to say so ok, ok unless we take this option.”

WATCH:

 

“‘America will end as we know it,'” Carlson said on Thursday night’s “Tucker Carlson Tonight,” mimicking Ackman’s words. “That scared investors around the world. It was everywhere. You probably remember it.”

Carlson added that Ackman was “especially terrifying” about the “future of Hilton hotels,” the company in which “he was a shareholder.”

“Wow,” said the Daily Caller co-founder. “Sounds like Bill Ackman is in serious trouble along with the rest of America. Well no, not exactly. In fact, Bill Ackman is suddenly much richer than ever. Just this Monday, Ackman made a net profit of more than $2 billion. He was buying stocks again, often at vastly discounted prices. How’d they get so low? One of those stocks was Hilton hotels, the one he just told America five days before could go to zero.”

To further his point, Carlson brought up another “massive bet” Ackman made several years ago when he “talked down the stock” of Herbalife “hoping to tank the stock price.” (RELATED: How ‘Vulture 



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maplelakeduckslayer
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Re: Economy going forward?

Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:08 pm

Ya im deeply saddened I made the same bet back in Jan didn't hold unfortunately

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Hansen
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Re: Economy going forward?

Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:13 am

I think the overall point is you can't shelter in place for 2 months otherwise the economy would be crushed.

I read the flatten the curve data model guy was totally wrong with his model making incorrect assumptions. His numbers were incredibly high that were published in the Washington post. I truly don't think the US or world knows the true numbers of Covid-19. The restaurant business are going to be crushed, the take out business is probably a break even deal. . . . maybe.

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h2ofwlr
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Re: Economy going forward?

Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:00 am

lanyard wrote:Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?


What you smoking there boy? Or do you have early onset of dementia?
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