Sun Dec 08, 2013 6:45 am
1) whether farmer or citiot, economic benefit wins out every 9 out of 10 ..... it is called "self interest".... not "best interest"
2) Pareto Principal~ anticipate 80% of outcomes occur due to 20% of actors. This is typically used in customer analysis, but it applies in any open market. 20% of the production is causing 80% of the problems.
3) Cost of Change~ sure, everyone agrees 20 years later Ethanol can't make it on it's own, but you now have Ethanol plants in small towns, providing jobs, etc. Whoever kills this, whether by guillotine or 1, 000 lashes, will need a big set.
4) The Cost of Doing Nothing~ far too many things are done for lack of a better alternative, even if those actions are crap. If ethanol hadn't been done, then it's "there are viable fuel alternatives and the US is so beholden' to big oil they won't use it!" Insert wind/cellulose/solar/bike lanes whatever.
5) History Repeating~ it is a generational issue that is affected by the magnitude of failure. Generational poverty is quickly repeated because the cost of remaining in a negative system are low. "The Great Recession", a looming ag land value bubble/market price deflations, and associated economic fall out will happen every 2 to 3 generations.... the folks most affected got OUT, those that made it through build stronger immune systems. Add hubris development from short term reinforcing factors, like a decade worth of growth, and things get tippy.